The impact of fluctuations in exchange rates and crude oil prices on the Yemeni trade balance

Abstract

This research dealt with the impact of fluctuations in exchange rates and crude oil on the Yemeni trade balance during the period (1999- 2016) and the aim of the study is to know the impact of fluctuations in the exchange and oil prices on the trade balance and the study was based on the following hypotheses:

     There is a positive relationship between global oil prices and the trade balance, and there is a direct relationship between the exchange rate and the trade balance, and the study tool was expressed in the time series collected from the reports of the Central Bank of Yemen and the descriptive analytical approach was followed in conducting the research and the study model was estimated in a small squares method using the statistical analysis program Eviews13 The study reached several results, including the existence of a statistically significant relationship between the change in crude oil prices and the balance of the trade balance at a significant level Less than 5%, where it was found that there is a positive statistical relationship (positive) and that now exports of crude oil and gas are disturbed by a large proportion of Yemeni exports and that we find that when oil prices rise positively affects the trade balance, And the existence of a statistically significant relationship between the fluctuations of the exchange rate of the Yemeni riyal and the trade balance at a significant level of less than 5%, where it was found that there is a negative statistical relationship (inverse) and this inverse relationship exists between exchange rate fluctuations (deterioration of the value of the Yemeni riyal) and the trade balance with regard to the study of the Yemeni trade balance during the study period, as a result of the cost of imports has increased significantly, especially the basic commodities on which Yemen depends to cover its daily needs.